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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 41

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 85-T.Eifert (32-D.Reed Jr.).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP