Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(14:24) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model