4th & Data
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ATL
44.2%
IND
55.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.079 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.119 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Matt Bosher P Out right Groin

IND

Darius Leonard LB Out Concussion
Jabaal Sheard DE Out Knee
Jonathan Williams RB Questionable Rib
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Quadricep
Marlon Mack RB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 FG IND (9:36) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ATL 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 01:31 TD IND (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-Z.Pascal for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – IND 9
  • Q2 05:54 FG IND (5:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ATL 0 – IND 13
  • Q2 02:24 FG ATL (2:24) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-M.Wile. ATL 3 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:13 TD IND (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – IND 19
  • Q3 10:37 TD ATL (10:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – IND 20
  • Q4 13:56 TD ATL (13:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-A.Muhammad]. ATL 16 – IND 20
  • Q4 08:47 TD IND (8:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-M.Mack right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – IND 26
  • Q4 04:17 TD ATL (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (9:36) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

    (5:51) 4-M.Wile punts 39 yards to IND 7, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (5:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (2:24) 3-M.Bryant 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-M.Wile.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:01) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ATL 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 38-K.Barner to ATL 40 for 13 yards (38-R.Lewis). PENALTY on ATL-33-B.Wreh-Wilson, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 37.