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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP