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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 31 for 20 yards (40-A.Armah).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model