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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CAR
63.6%
ARI
36.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Kyle Allen (CAR): +0.405 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Kyle Allen in place of Cam Newton)
  • ARI defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CAR on 3 more days rest than ARI

Predicted Final Score

CAR 25
–
ARI 22
Projected margin: CAR by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CAR

Rashaan Gaulden S Out Groin
Brandon Greene T Out Neck
Bruce Irvin LB Out Hamstring
Cam Newton QB Out Foot
Kawann Short DE Questionable Shoulder
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Back

ARI

Lamont Gaillard G Out Knee
Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Hamstring
Ezekiel Turner LB Questionable Hand
Chris Jones CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 38
–
ARI 20

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:34 TD ARI (4:34) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 14:15 TD CAR (14:15) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-T.Suggs]. CAR 6 – ARI 7
  • Q2 01:40 FG ARI (1:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. CAR 7 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:58 TD CAR (:58) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – ARI 10
  • Q3 11:31 TD ARI (11:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-D.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – ARI 16
  • Q3 07:47 TD CAR (7:47) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – ARI 17
  • Q3 02:52 FG ARI (2:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. CAR 21 – ARI 20
  • Q3 02:05 TD CAR (2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 27 – ARI 20
  • Q4 13:37 TD CAR (13:37) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 34 – ARI 20
  • Q4 04:31 FG CAR (4:31) 4-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 38 – ARI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (10:46) 4-A.Lee punts 40 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to ARI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 31 for 20 yards (40-A.Armah).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (1:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:31) 4-A.Lee punts 35 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 65%

    (4:34) Direct snap to 31-D.Johnson. 31-D.Johnson up the middle to CAR 35 for 2 yards (25-E.Reid).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (2:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:27) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-R.McCloud to ARI 32 for 51 yards (4-A.Lee). Penalty on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at CAR 17. Penalty on ARI-4-A.Lee, Horse Collar Tackle, offsetting.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 33 for 13 yards (57-A.Smith). PENALTY on ARI-16-T.Sherfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:07) 5-Z.Gonzalez punts 44 yards to CAR 46, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (5:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (4:31) 4-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.