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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 5-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model