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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-A.Lee punts 35 yards to CAR 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model