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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:34) Direct snap to 31-D.Johnson. 31-D.Johnson up the middle to CAR 35 for 2 yards (25-E.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model