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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model