Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Carolina Panthers 35

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 4-A.Lee punts 53 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-R.McCloud to ARI 32 for 51 yards (4-A.Lee). Penalty on CAR-47-R.Cockrell, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at CAR 17. Penalty on ARI-4-A.Lee, Horse Collar Tackle, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model