Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 35 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at ARI 33 for 13 yards (57-A.Smith). PENALTY on ARI-16-T.Sherfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.98 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model