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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 35 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model