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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 35 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 4-J.Slye 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model