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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 9 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.95 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model