Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- CHI defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
CHI
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:53 TD CHI (9:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 18-T.Quinn INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at WAS 37. 21-H.Clinton-Dix for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – WAS 0
- Q2 07:06 TD CHI (7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – WAS 0
- Q2 05:46 TD CHI (5:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 18-T.Gabriel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – WAS 0
- Q2 00:49 TD CHI (:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Gabriel. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 18-T.Gabriel for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – WAS 0
- Q2 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CHI 28 – WAS 3
- Q3 06:44 TD WAS (6:44) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – WAS 9
- Q4 13:15 TD WAS (13:15) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – WAS 15
- Q4 01:54 FG CHI (1:54) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 31 – WAS 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:50) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to CHI 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 37 for 20 yards (34-W.Smallwood). PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to WAS 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 42 for 9 yards (26-D.Bush).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 18% p(FG) 85%
(13:26) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%
(10:20) 15-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(13:15) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(11:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to WAS 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 35 for 6 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67%
(10:11) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to CHI 49 for 7 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 94%
(7:08) 8-C.Keenum up the middle to CHI 15 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan). FUMBLES (59-D.Trevathan), touched at CHI 18, RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 19. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 22 for 3 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%
(1:54) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.