Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 74

Chicago Bears 28 – Washington Commanders 15

(11:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to WAS 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 35 for 6 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model