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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 56

Washington Commanders 15 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to CHI 49 for 7 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model