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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 16

Washington Commanders 15 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 8-C.Keenum up the middle to CHI 15 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan). FUMBLES (59-D.Trevathan), touched at CHI 18, RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 19. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 22 for 3 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model