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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 20

Chicago Bears 28 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model