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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 78

Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to WAS 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 42 for 9 yards (26-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model