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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 8

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 38 for 4 yards (34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model