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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CIN
38.5%
BUF
61.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.092 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 18
–
BUF 22
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Ryan Glasgow DT Out Thigh
Cordy Glenn T Out Concussion
A.J. Green WR Out Ankle
B.W. Webb CB Out Forearm
Kerry Wynn DE Out Concussion
Carl Lawson DE Doubtful Hamstring
Andre Smith T Questionable Groin
Michael Jordan G Questionable Knee

BUF

Taron Johnson CB Out Hamstring
Tyler Kroft TE Out Foot
Devin Singletary RB Out Hamstring
Corey Thompson LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
BUF 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:07 TD BUF (3:07) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. CIN 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 10:33 FG BUF (10:33) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. CIN 0 – BUF 11
  • Q2 02:16 FG BUF (2:16) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. CIN 0 – BUF 14
  • Q3 05:54 TD CIN (5:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BUF 14
  • Q4 12:30 TD CIN (12:30) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone, nearing sideline. CIN 13 – BUF 14
  • Q4 04:58 FG CIN (4:58) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – BUF 14
  • Q4 01:54 TD BUF (1:54) 20-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 17 – BUF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to CIN 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 37 for 4 yards (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:33) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:15) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:15) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 38 for 4 yards (34-S.Perine).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (10:33) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:16) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to CIN 44, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-34-S.Perine.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%

    (2:16) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 18 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:35) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 15 for no gain (52-P.Brown; 34-S.Perine).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:01) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 28 for 12 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to BUF 16 (penalty incurred during kick). PENALTY on BUF-41-M.Alexander, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 16.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CIN 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 4 yards (33-S.Neal, 41-M.Alexander).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 47%

    (3:08) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 22 yards to CIN 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:14) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (4:58) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.