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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model