Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

(1:35) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 15 for no gain (52-P.Brown; 34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model