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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CIN 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 36 for 4 yards (33-S.Neal, 41-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.86 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model