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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 22 yards to CIN 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model