Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(6:15) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.84 EP
52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model