4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to DET 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model