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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DET
35.6%
PHI
64.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.121 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.027 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • DET defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DET

Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Elbow
Jarrad Davis LB Questionable Ankle
Taylor Decker T Questionable Back
Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Knee
C.J. Moore S Questionable Heel

PHI

Corey Clement RB Out Shoulder
DeSean Jackson WR Out Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Foot
Jordan Mailata T Out Back
Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Doubtful Knee
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Calf
Nate Sudfeld QB Questionable left Wrist
Dallas Goedert TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 27
–
PHI 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:30 FG PHI (11:30) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. DET 0 – PHI 3
  • Q1 11:28 TD DET 4-J.Elliott kicks 65 yards from PHI 35 to DET 0. 39-J.Agnew for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – PHI 3
  • Q1 06:19 TD PHI (6:19) 24-J.Howard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – PHI 9
  • Q2 14:12 TD DET (14:12) 33-K.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – PHI 10
  • Q2 03:32 FG DET (3:32) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 17 – PHI 10
  • Q2 00:59 FG DET (:59) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 20 – PHI 10
  • Q3 04:23 TD PHI (4:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-N.Agholor for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – PHI 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – PHI 17
  • Q4 07:03 TD PHI (7:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – PHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (11:30) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:53) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to DET 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:53) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to PHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-M.Ford.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (3:32) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (:59) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:23) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to PHI 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 23%

    (9:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DET 2, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:09) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to DET 49, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to DET 47 for 2 yards (32-T.Wilson; 44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:15) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to DET 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 39-J.Agnew to PHI 48 for 24 yards (1-C.Johnston).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (11:38) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 52%

    (3:24) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to PHI 28 for 6 yards (42-D.Kennard).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 80%

    (1:53) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Douglas at PHI 42. 32-R.Douglas to DET 40 for 18 yards (77-F.Ragnow). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 15 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside.