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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 59

Detroit Lions 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to PHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model