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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 7

Detroit Lions 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 7, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model