4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 15

Detroit Lions 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:59) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model