Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 87

Detroit Lions 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(7:09) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to DET 49, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to DET 47 for 2 yards (32-T.Wilson; 44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.32 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model