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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 7

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model