Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Detroit Lions 27

(13:15) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to DET 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 39-J.Agnew to PHI 48 for 24 yards (1-C.Johnston).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model