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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 28

Detroit Lions 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Douglas at PHI 42. 32-R.Douglas to DET 40 for 18 yards (77-F.Ragnow). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model