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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to MIA 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Grant to MIA 36 for 1 yard (48-J.Thomas; 53-J.March-Lillard).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP