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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 22.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

MIA
12.8%
DAL
87.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.248 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.213 vs Josh Rosen (MIA) -0.399 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Josh Rosen in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick)
  • DAL offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

MIA 17
–
DAL 31
Projected margin: DAL by 14 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIA

Reshad Jones S Out Ankle
Albert Wilson WR Out Hip
Charles Harris DE Questionable Wrist
Trent Harris LB Questionable Foot
Bobby McCain S Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Concussion
Tyrone Crawford DE Out Hip
Michael Gallup WR Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Out Ankle
Antwaun Woods DT Out Knee
Xavier Woods S Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 6
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:31 FG DAL (10:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. MIA 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 06:02 TD DAL (6:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-25-X.Howard, Defensive Holding, declined. MIA 0 – DAL 9
  • Q1 00:58 FG MIA (:58) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – DAL 10
  • Q2 05:51 FG MIA (5:51) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 6 – DAL 10
  • Q3 12:33 TD DAL (12:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – DAL 16
  • Q3 03:36 TD DAL (3:36) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – DAL 23
  • Q4 03:50 TD DAL (3:50) 20-T.Pollard left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – DAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%

    (13:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (10:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 31 yards to DAL 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:58) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (13:58) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:47) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to MIA 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Grant to MIA 36 for 1 yard (48-J.Thomas; 53-J.March-Lillard).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (5:51) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:18) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to MIA 17, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (9:10) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-C.Wilson to DAL 24 for 13 yards (81-D.Smythe, 49-S.Eguavoen). Injury update: Jomal Wiltz of Miami has a groin injury. His return is questionable.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to MIA 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 23, ball out of bounds at MIA 23.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:47) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to DAL 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at DAL 29.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (7:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 18-P.Williams pushed ob at DAL 43 for 8 yards (30-A.Brown).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%

    (5:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to DAL 39 for -1 yards (38-J.Heath; 55-L.Vander Esch).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 57%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake up the middle to DAL 39 for 1 yard (56-J.Jackson).