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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model