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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.66 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model