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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 6 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model