Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 6 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(12:47) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to DAL 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at DAL 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model