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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 6 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to DAL 39 for -1 yards (38-J.Heath; 55-L.Vander Esch).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model