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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model