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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(9:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 31 yards to DAL 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model