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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 20 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model