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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NO
31.4%
SEA
68.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.135 vs Teddy Bridgewater (NO) -0.031 EPA/dropback (NO starting Teddy Bridgewater in place of Drew Brees)
  • SEA offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
SEA 28
Projected margin: SEA by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Drew Brees QB Out right Thumb
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Ankle
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Achilles

SEA

Ethan Pocic G Doubtful Neck
Neiko Thorpe CB Doubtful Hamstring
Tre Flowers CB Questionable Ankle
Rashaad Penny RB Questionable Hamstring
Tedric Thompson S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 33
–
SEA 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:19 TD NO (12:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to NO 47, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 02:29 TD SEA (2:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – SEA 6
  • Q2 07:05 TD NO (7:05) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right tackle to SEA 30 for 22 yards (25-E.Apple, 43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (25-E.Apple), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at SEA 33. 24-V.Bell for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:42 TD NO (:42) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – SEA 7
  • Q3 07:47 TD NO (7:47) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – SEA 7
  • Q4 11:56 TD SEA (11:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – SEA 13
  • Q4 04:22 TD NO (4:22) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-50-K.Wright was injured during the play. NO 33 – SEA 14
  • Q4 02:55 TD SEA (2:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – SEA 20
  • Q4 00:00 TD SEA (:00) Untimed down. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-W.Dissly for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – SEA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to NO 47, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 54%

    (8:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 29 yards to NO 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (5:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to SEA 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (11:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to NO 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris to NO 20 for no gain (28-U.Amadi).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to SEA 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 48%

    (2:37) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to NO 42 for -1 yards (56-D.Davis, 94-C.Jordan).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:47) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to NO 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.Barton at NO 33. 57-C.Barton to NO 33 for no gain (11-D.Harris). PENALTY on SEA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 33.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (2:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Lockett [56-D.Davis].

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to SEA 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill; 48-J.Gray). NO-55-K.Elliss was injured during the play.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 67%

    (13:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 22-C.Prosise pushed ob at NO 13 for 21 yards (43-M.Williams).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SEA 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 19 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 17-M.Turner. Seattle challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 09:41.)

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to SEA 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 18 for 8 yards (27-D.Washington).