4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Lockett [56-D.Davis].

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model