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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 27 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to SEA 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill; 48-J.Gray). NO-55-K.Elliss was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model